POP releases people’s appraisal of policy areas of the government (2019-11-05)

Nov 5, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Presentation Slides (Chinese Only)
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POP releases people’s appraisal of policy areas of the government

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 519 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of October. Results show that the latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. Among them, the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government has attained the highest net satisfaction rate, at negative 43 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and its performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining net satisfaction rates of negative 45, negative 54, negative 55 and negative 57 percentage points respectively. Compared with the figures in December 2018, the net satisfaction rates of all policy areas have dropped dramatically. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of the performance in maintaining economic prosperity has registered record low since July 2003, while the net satisfaction rates of the other four policy areas even registered historical lows since records began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 68.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 24-28/10/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size : 519 (including 259 landline and 260 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[1] : 68.3%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.
[1] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:

Date of survey

19-22/6/17 18-19/12/17 14-21/6/18 17-20/12/18 24-28/10/19 Latest change

Sample size

542-634 569-652 588-666 512-540 519 —

Response rate

71.2% 64.9% 59.6% 60.6% 68.3% —

Latest findings

Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error —
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate [3] 37%[4] 52%[4] 52% 56% 17+/-3% -40%[4]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction
rate[3]		 36% 26%[4] 33%[4] 26%[4] 60+/-4% +34%[4]
Net satisfaction rate 1% 26%[4] 19% 31%[4] -43+/-7% -74%[4]
Mean value[3] 2.9 3.3[4] 3.2 3.4[4] 2.1+/-0.1 -1.3[4]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate [3] 36% 36% 36% 35% 22+/-4% -13%[4]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction
rate[3]		 43%[4] 44% 49%[4] 46% 67+/-4% +22%[4]
Net satisfaction rate -7%[4] -8% -13% -11% -45+/-7% -35%[4]
Mean value[3] 2.8[4] 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.0+/-0.1 -0.6[4]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate [3] 38% 44%[4] 46% 48% 14+/-3% -35%[4]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate [3] 35% 26%[4] 35%[4] 31% 68+/-4% +37%[4]
Net satisfaction rate 2% 18%[4] 10%[4] 17% -54+/-6% -71%[4]
Mean value[3] 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.0+/-0.1 -1.2[4]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate [3] 25% 30%[4] 29% 34% 15+/-3% -19%[4]
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate [3] 52%[4] 49% 55%[4] 50% 70+/-4% +20%[4]
Net satisfaction rate -27% -18%[4] -26%[4] -16% -55+/-7% -39%[4]
Mean value[3] 2.5 2.6 2.4[4] 2.6 1.9+/-0.1 -0.7[4]
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate [3] 26%[4] 39%[4] 34%[4] 33% 15+/-3% -18%[4]
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate [3] 49% 38%[4] 47%[4] 46% 72+/-4% +26%[4]
Net satisfaction rate -22% 1%[4] -13%[4] -13% -57+/-6% -44%[4]
Mean value[3] 2.6 2.9[4] 2.7[4] 2.7 1.9+/-0.1 -0.8[4]
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. Among them, the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government has attained the highest net satisfaction rate, at negative 43 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and its performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining net satisfaction rates of negative 45, negative 54, negative 55 and negative 57 percentage points respectively. The mean values of these five specific policy areas range from 1.9 to 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Compared with the figures in December 2018, the net satisfaction rates of all policy areas have dropped dramatically. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of the performance in maintaining economic prosperity has registered record low since July 2003, while the net satisfaction rates of the other four policy areas even registered historical lows since records began in 1997.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by
POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 20 December, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 24 to 28 October, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures:

28/10/19 Journalists protest against police violence targeting journalists during police press conference.
25/10/19 The High Court grants an interim injunction to restrain unlawful publishing of the personal data of police officers and their family members.
23/10/19 Chan Tong-kai is released from prison.
20/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Kowloon district.
16/10/19 Carrie Lam delivers the 2019 Policy Address.
13/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
10/10/19 Matthew Cheung announces police has arrested more than 2,000 people since the anti-extradition bill movement began.
6/10/19 Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
5/10/19 Anti-mask law rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
4/10/19 The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law.
1/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan.
29/9/19 Anti-totalitarianism rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
28/9/19 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes a rally at Tamar Park to commemorate 5th anniversary of Umbrella Movement.
26/9/19 Carrie Lam attends the first Community Dialogue session.
22/9/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Shatin and multiple districts in Hong Kong.
21/9/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Tuen Mun and Yuen Long.
15/9/19 Protest on Hong Kong Island turns into conflicts between protestors and the police.
14/9/19 Conflicts occur between people with the national flag and those against the extradition bill.
8/9/19 Rally in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act turns into conflicts between protestors and the police.
7/9/19 Anti-extradition bill protesters call for blocking the airport and nearby roads.
4/9/19 Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill.
3/9/19 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement.
1/9/19 Anti-extradition bill protesters hold a demonstration near Hong Kong International Airport.
31/8/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
25/8/19 Protest against extradition bill in Tsuen Wan turns into a conflict between protestors and the police, a police officer fires a warning shot into the air.
24/8/19 Protest against extradition bill in Kwun Tong turns into a conflict between protestors and the police.
24/8/19 MTR partially suspends train service due to protest against extradition bill.
18/8/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around 1.7 million people participated in the rally against the extradition bill.
15/8/19 The government announces a series of relief measures, which will cost $19.1 billion.


Data Analysis

The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. Among them, the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government has attained the highest net satisfaction rate, at negative 43 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and its performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining net satisfaction rates of negative 45, negative 54, negative 55 and negative 57 percentage points respectively. Compared with the figures in December 2018, the net satisfaction rates of all policy areas have dropped dramatically. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of the performance in maintaining economic prosperity has registered record low since July 2003, while the net satisfaction rates of the other four policy areas even registered historical lows since records began in 1997.