Jan 10, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Press Release on January 10, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 21.5 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 25.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 41 percentage points, both being historical lows since he took office. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 27.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 37 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.5 marks and her net popularity is negative 69 percentage points. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among 13 Directors have gone up and 9 have gone down. Only that of Edward Yau has changed beyond sampling error, down by 9 percentage points. The net approval rates of Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Nicholas Yang, Sophia Chan, Joshua Law and Kevin Yeung have registered historical lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 72.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 3-8/1/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,011 (including 504 landline and 507 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 72.0% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-23/10/19 | 1-8/11/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,038 | 1,016 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,046 | 1,011 | — |
| Response rate | 63.2% | 69.4% | 74.1% | 63.2% | 61.6% | 72.0% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 20.2 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5+/-1.9 | +1.9 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 11%[4] | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 14+/-2% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 82% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 81% | 80+/-3% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -71% | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66+/-4% | +2% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | 1-8/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 574-580 | 640-679 | 584-649 | 625-656 | 659-671 | 608-669 | — |
| Response rate | 62.8% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 69.4% | 63.2% | 72.0% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 40.1 | 32.1[5] | 31.8 | 28.1[5] | 25.6 | 25.3+/-2.2 | -0.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
28% | 18%[5] | 18% | 17% | 13% | 14+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
27%[5] | 41%[5] | 42% | 46% | 54%[5] | 54+/-4% | — |
| Net approval rate | 1%[5] | -23%[5] | -24% | -29% | -40%[5] | -41+/-6% | — |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 32.9[5] | 28.0[5] | 26.9 | 27.2 | 24.8 | 27.6+/-2.3 | +2.9 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 19% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 49%[5] | 55% | 59% | 57% | 57% | 56+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -30%[5] | -35% | -42% | -40% | -40% | -37+/-6% | +3% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 20.3 | 17.7 | 14.7[5] | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.5+/-2.0 | — |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 11% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 8+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 63% | 68% | 75%[5] | 76% | 75% | 77+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -59% | -69%[5] | -68% | -66% | -69+/-5% | -3% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[6]:
| Date of survey | 30/9-3/10/19 | 29-31/10/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 583-633 | 510 | 588-638 | 588-620 | — |
| Response rate | 64.5% | 65.0% | 63.2% | 72.0% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 19% | 17% | 18% | 18+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 22%[7] | 24% | 24% | 23+/-3% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -3% | -7% | -6% | -5+/-5% | +1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 26% | 23% | 23% | 24+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 24% | 27% | 33%[7] | 30+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | 2% | -4% | -11% | -6+/-6% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 31% | 24%[7] | 26% | 25+/-4% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 32%[7] | 35% | 29% | 38+/-4% | +9%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -1%[7] | -11%[7] | -4% | -13+/-7% | -9%[7] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 17% | 14% | 17% | 16+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 25% | 31% | 30% | 32+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -9%[7] | -16%[7] | -13% | -16+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 25% | 18%[7] | 20% | 22+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 30% | 33% | 36% | 41+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -5% | -15%[7] | -16% | -19+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 18% | 17% | 16% | 16+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 34% | 35% | 32% | 38+/-4% | +6%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -16% | -18% | -16% | -22+/-6% | -6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 33% | 27%[7] | 22% | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 24% | 37%[7] | 43%[7] | 45+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 9% | -10%[7] | -21%[7] | -24+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 21% | 17% | 18% | 18+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 32% | 37% | 42% | 47+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -20%[7] | -23% | -29+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 16%[7] | 15% | 17% | 18+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 50%[7] | 54% | 50% | 50+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -34%[7] | -39% | -34% | -31+/-6% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 17% | 12%[7] | 16% | 11+/-3% | -4%[7] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 43%[7] | 50%[7] | 43%[7] | 44+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -26%[7] | -38%[7] | -27%[7] | -32+/-5% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 14% | 10%[7] | 14% | 14+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 58% | 59% | 58% | 56+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -43% | -49% | -44% | -42+/-6% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 14% | 9%[7] | 15%[7] | 14+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 67% | 73%[7] | 66%[7] | 68+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -63%[7] | -51%[7] | -54+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 11%[7] | 11% | 12% | 11+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 60%[7] | 60% | 62% | 66+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -50%[7] | -48% | -50% | -55+/-6% | -5% |
[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 21.5 marks. Her approval rate is 14%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 66 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 25.3 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 54%, giving a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 27.6 marks, approval rate 18%, disapproval rate 56%, thus a net popularity of negative 37 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.5 marks, approval rate 8%, disapproval rate 77%, giving a net popularity of negative 69 percentage points. The rating and net popularity of Matthew Cheung have registered historical lows since he took office.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, followed by Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung.
Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among 13 Directors have gone up and 9 have gone down. Only that of Edward Yau has changed beyond sampling error, down by 9 percentage points. The net approval rates of Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Nicholas Yang, Sophia Chan, Joshua Law and Kevin Yeung have registered historical lows since they took office.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Sophia Chan, Frank Chan, Joshua Law, Nicholas Yang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Matthew Cheung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (25%)
Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (24%) Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (22%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (21%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (18%) Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (18%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (16%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (11%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[8]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (18%, 41%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (16%, 48%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (66%)
Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (56%) FS Paul Chan Mo-po (56%) CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (54%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (80%)
SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (77%) Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (68%) |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 28 November to 3 December, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 8 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 7/1/20 | The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases. |
| 2/1/20 | A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 31/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve. |
| 28/12/19 | Number of tours for tourists from mainland China has plunged. |
| 25/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 11/12/19 | All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit. |
| 9/12/19 | Survey suggests that a wave of lay-offs and company closures in the retail sector is coming. |
| 8/12/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest. |
| 4/12/19 | The government announces a new round of relief measures. |
| 2/12/19 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts a budget deficit in this fiscal year. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 21.5 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 25.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 41 percentage points, both being historical lows since he took office. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 27.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 37 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.5 marks and her net popularity is negative 69 percentage points.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among 13 Directors have gone up and 9 have gone down. Only that of Edward Yau has changed beyond sampling error, down by 9 percentage points. The net approval rates of Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Nicholas Yang, Sophia Chan, Joshua Law and Kevin Yeung have registered historical lows since they took office.