POP releases June Fourth Incident survey (2021-06-01)

Jun 01, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

POP releases June Fourth Incident survey

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of May. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students and a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth, but all these figures have registered significant drops from lats year. Meanwhile, the percentages of those who consider the human rights condition in China worse than that in 1989 and those who think the condition will worsen in the next three years have decreased significantly compared to a year ago. More Hong Kong people continue to think that they have a responsibility to promote democratic development in China while the number of respondents who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate economic development in China surged and those who thought no such responsibility plunged. When comparing democratic and economic development, the percentages of respondents who thought Hong Kong people should give more weight to the development of democracy and economic development in China are very close, while more Hong Kong people still think China should emphasize more on the development of democracy now, but the figure has dropped significantly compared to last year. Regarding the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, 28% of the respondents said it should be disbanded, an all-time high since records began in 1993 whereas 38% said no, representing a new low since 1998. Its latest popularity rating stands at 45.5 marks.  The effective response rate of the survey is 52.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	17-21/5/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,004 (including 494 landline and 510 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2]	:	52.5%
Sampling error[3]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Figures of the latest June Fourth anniversary survey are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/5/17	21-25/5/18	20-23/5/19	19-21/5/20	17-21/5/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,003	1,009	1,013	1,001	1,004	—
Response rate	69.7%	55.9%	61.9%	55.6%	52.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Proportion of respondents believing:
The Beijing students did the right thing	46%	50%[4]	52%	52%	42+/-3%	-11%[4]
The Beijing students did the wrong thing	22%[4]	17%[4]	21%	20%	22+/-3%	+2%
The Chinese Government did the right thing	12%	11%	13%	15%	19+/-3%	+4%[4]
The Chinese Government did the wrong thing	69%	68%	68%	66%	54+/-3%	-12%[4]
There should be a reversion of the official stand on the incident	55%[4]	54%	59%	59%	47+/-3%	-13%[4]
There should not be a reversion of the official stand on the incident	27%[4]	24%	23%	23%	28+/-3%	+5%[4]
China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989	53%[4]	47%[4]	44%	38%[4]	43+/-3%	+5%[4]
China’s human rights condition has worsened since 1989	23%	28%[4]	33%[4]	43%[4]	34+/-3%	-9%[4]
China’s human rights condition would improve after 3 years	38%[4]	34%[4]	32%	29%	37+/-3%	+8%[4]
China’s human rights condition would worsen after 3 years	23%	31%[4]	37%[4]	44%[4]	33+/-3%	-11%[4]
HK people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China	58%[4]	56%	62%[4]	51%[4]	51+/-3%	—
HK people have no responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China	30%	31%	28%	36%[4]	34+/-3%	-2%
HK people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China	58%	59%	59%	45%[4]	53+/-3%	+8%[4]
HK people have no responsibility to instigate economic development in China	36%	33%	35%	45%[4]	37+/-3%	-7%[4]
HK people should put more effort on instigating economic than democratic development in China	32%	35%	31%[4]	28%	34+/-3%	+6%[4]
HK people should put more effort on instigating democratic than economic development in China	38%	36%	44%[4]	44%	32+/-3%	-12%[4]
China should emphasize economic development more	32%	32%	31%	29%	33+/-3%	+4%
China should emphasize democratic development more	46%	45%	50%[4]	49%	39+/-3%	-10%[4]

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

This year’s survey findings revealed that 42% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, which plunged from last year and registered a new low since 2002.  While 22% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, the proportion of respondents regarded it as correct surged and now stands at 19%, setting an all-time high since records began in 1993. 54% regarded it as wrong, representing a significant drop and registered a new low since 2002. The findings also showed that the number of respondents who supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident plunged and currently stands at 47%, setting a new low since 2003. Meanwhile, 28% did not support a reversion. This figure has increased sharply and registered a new high since 2006.

Regarding the human rights condition in China, 43% of the respondents believed that China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989, and 37% anticipated that China’s human rights condition will further improve after 3 years, both having increased significantly compared to a year ago whereas 34% and 33% thought it has worsened since 1989 and will get worse in 3 years’ time respectively. Both figures have decreased significantly compared to a year ago.

Moreover, 51% of the respondents thought that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate democratic development in China, whereas 34% thought otherwise. On the other hand, the number of people who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate economic development in China surged in the year past and now stands at 53%, while the number of people who thought no such responsibility dropped significantly and now stands at 37%.

When comparing democratic and economic development, 34% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, which surged from last year. While 32% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy, representing a significant drop and a record low since 2009. On the other hand, 33% believed that China should emphasize economic development more, registered a record high since 2010, while 39% inclined toward democratic development. The proportion dropped significantly and registered a new low since 2010.

Latest figures regarding the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (“the Alliance”) are as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/5/17	21-25/5/18	20-23/5/19	19-21/5/20	17-21/5/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,003	1,009	1,013	1,001	1,004	—
Response rate	69.7%	55.9%	61.9%	55.6%	52.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Popularity rating of the Alliance	46.9[5]	47.0	50.3[5]	47.5	45.5+/-2.1	-2.0
The Alliance should be disbanded	25%[5]	21%[5]	20%	24%	28+/-3%	+4%[5]
The Alliance should not be disbanded	46%[5]	45%	53%[5]	43%[5]	38+/-3%	-5%[5]

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Regarding the Alliance, 28% of the respondents said it should be disbanded, the figure has surged over the year past and set an all-time high since records began in 1993. 38% said no which has dropped to a new low since 1998. Its latest popularity rating stands at 45.5 marks.

Data Analysis

This is the 29th anniversary survey on the June Fourth Incident conducted by POP, marking its 32rd anniversary. From a broad perspective, Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students and a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth, but all these figures have registered significant drops from lats year. The percentages of those who consider the human rights condition in China worse than that in 1989 and those who think the condition will worsen in the next three years have also decreased significantly compared to a year ago.

More Hong Kong people continue to think that they have a responsibility to promote democratic development in China while the number of respondents who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate economic development in China surged and those who thought no such responsibility plunged.

When comparing democratic and economic development, the percentages of respondents who thought Hong Kong people should give more weight to the development of democracy and economic development in China are very close, while more Hong Kong people still think China should emphasize more on the development of democracy now.

Regarding the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, 28% of the respondents said it should be disbanded, an all-time high since records began in 1993 whereas 38% said no, representing a new low since 1998. Its latest popularity rating stands at 45.5 marks.