Feb 08,2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Johnny Lau – Current Affairs Commentator
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Online Commentator:
KC Poon – Independent commentator
Detailed Findings
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,021 and 1,001 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. Our survey shows that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 66.7 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. Wang Yi, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, only the rating of Wang Yi has increased significantly. Meanwhile, both ratings of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin have reached record highs since 2014. Wang Qishan and Han Kuo-yu obtained support ratings of 55.8 and 35.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 48.4%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.3 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Rating stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 3-6/1/2022 | 17-20/1/2022 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,021 (including 510 landline and 511 mobile samples) | 1,001 (including 494 landline and 507 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.3 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. | |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 22-24/7/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 17-20/1/22 | Latest change | |
| Sample size | 510 | 541-649 | 652-706 | 545-602 | — | |
| Response rate | 56.5% | 67.2% | 48.5% | 48.4% | — | |
| Latest findings[4] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | — |
| Zhu Rongji | 61.6{1} | 67.7{1}[5] | 64.5{1} | 66.7+/-2.3{1} | 78.9% | +2.1 |
| Wen Jiabao | 54.4{3} | 61.9{2}[5] | 61.2{2} | 62.7+/-2.0{2} | 87.5% | +1.5 |
| Hu Jintao | 51.1{4} | 58.0{3}[5] | 57.9{3} | 59.6+/-2.0{3} | 84.3% | +1.7 |
| Li Keqiang | 46.4{5} | 54.5{4}[5] | 56.9{4} | 59.2+/-2.3{4} | 86.3% | +2.3 |
| Xi Jinping | 40.7{8} | 50.9{6}[5] | 55.4{5}[5] | 57.6+/-3.1{5} | 91.8% | +2.2 |
| Wang Yi | — | — | 49.1{8} | 54.1+/-3.3{6} | 69.0% | +5.0[5] |
| Ma Ying-jeou | 45.9{7} | 50.7{7}[5] | 51.1{6} | 51.9+/-2.1{7} | 87.9% | +0.9 |
| Jiang Zemin | 46.2{6} | 49.1{8} | 50.4{7} | 51.6+/-2.1{8} | 84.7% | +1.2 |
| Tsai Ing-wen | 57.6{2} | 52.8{5}[5] | 48.6{9}[5] | 47.7+/-2.7{9} | 89.1% | -0.9 |
| Chen Shui-bian | 23.1{10} | 27.3{10}[5] | 26.3{10} | 26.9+/-2.0{10} | 84.6% | +0.6 |
| Wang Qishan | — | 53.3[6] | 51.8[6] | 55.8+/-2.9[6] | 61.1% | +4.1[5] |
| Han Kuo-yu | 24.6{9} | 33.5{9}[5] | — | 35.5+/-2.9[6] | 60.1% | — |
| Su Tseng-chang | — | 40.2[6] | 41.2[6] | — | — | — |
| Lee Teng-hui | 36.7[6] | — | — | — | — | — |
| Han Zheng | 33.2[6] | — | — | — | — | — |
[3]If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4]Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[6]Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 66.7 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping with scores of 62.7, 59.6, 59.2 and 57.6 marks respectively. Wang Yi, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks with 54.1, 51.9, 51.6 and 47.7 marks correspondingly. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian with a score of 26.9 marks. Compared to the previous survey, only the rating of Wang Yi has increased significantly. Meanwhile, both ratings of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin have reached record highs since 2014. Wang Qishan and Han Kuo-yu obtained support ratings of 55.8 and 35.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.
It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 July, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 January, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 17/1/22 | National Bureau of Statistics announces that China’s GDP grows 8.1% in 2021. |
| 22/12/21 | Carrie Lam on duty visit to Beijing. |
| 14/12/21 | John Lee leads a delegation to Shenzhen to discuss details of border reopening with officials from Guangdong. |
| 6/12/21 | Xia Baolong says the “patriots administering Hong Kong” principle aims at achieving participation of people from diverse backgrounds. |
| 4/12/21 | The SAR government and the Liaison Office co-organised the “Constitution Day” online seminar. |
| 25/11/21 | The government says the progress of border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong is promising, and that “Hong Kong Health Code” will be launched in December. |
| 23/11/21 | Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR governments will have a meeting to discuss details of border reopening. |
| 21/11/21 | Pandemic experts from mainland China visit Hong Kong. |
| 16/11/21 | Xi Jinping and Biden meet virtually. |
| 11/11/21 | The sixth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the third historical resolution in party history. |
| 9/10/21 | Commemorative meeting of the 110th anniversary of 1911 Revolution is held in Beijing. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 1/10/21 | The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day. |
| 25/9/21 | Meng Wanzhou is freed and returns to China. |
| 24/9/21 | China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 7/9/21 | The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme. |
| 6/9/21 | The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai. |
| 23/8/21 | Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials. |
| 23/7/21 | The opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics is held. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 66.7 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. Wang Yi, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, only the rating of Wang Yi has increased significantly. Meanwhile, both ratings of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin have reached record highs since 2014. Wang Qishan and Han Kuo-yu obtained support ratings of 55.8 and 35.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.