Mar 15, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Man-Lung Cheung - Former Vice-Chair, Kwai Tsing District Council
Online Commentator:
Wai-Ho Yam - Member, Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood
Detailed Findings
Erratum
The description of historic low of Sophia Chan in the original release was incorrect. It should be “a new low since records began in July 2017”. We apologize for the mistake.
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institution (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
PORI successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early March. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 26.6 marks, which has significantly decreased by 5.2 marks compared to a month ago, registering a record low since April 2020, with 40% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 67 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 14 percentage points compared to a month ago, registering a record low since February 2020. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 34.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 14 percentage points. Both have registered new lows since records began in July 2021. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.7 marks and his net popularity is positive 11 percentage points, registering a new high since records began in early February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 26.6 marks and her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. No significant changes have been registered for all the above ratings and net approval rates compared to two months ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui has left the post and 4 out of the remaining 12 Directors have got positive net approval rates, who are Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Edward Yau. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of 5 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, the net approval rate of Christopher Hui has significantly increased, while that of Sophia Chan has dropped significantly by 26 percentage points, registering a new low since records began in July 2017. The effective response rate of the survey is 51.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 7-11/3/2022 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 504 landline and 496 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 51.5% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | 7-11/3/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,017 | 1,021 | 1,012 | 1,000 | -- |
| Response rate | 53.7% | 44.9% | 58.0% | 52.7% | 58.1% | 51.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 31.9 | 26.6+/-1.8 | -5.2[3] |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
24% | 21% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 12+/-2% | -6%[3] |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
60%[3] | 66%[3] | 63% | 67% | 70% | 78+/-3% | +8%[3] |
| Net approval rate | -36% | -45%[3] | -42% | -48% | -53% | -67+/-4% | -14%[3] |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 23/2/22[4] | 7-11/3/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 574-600 | 589-668 | 529-589 | 582-628 | 917 | 559-620 | -- |
| Response rate | 49.4% | 44.2% | 50.1% | 52.7% | 47.6% | 51.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS John Lee | 35.3 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 36.9 | -- | 34.8+/-2.5 | -2.1 |
| Vote of confidence in CS John Lee | 29% | 28% | 29% | 28% | -- | 24+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee | 40% | 38% | 35% | 38% | -- | 38+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -11% | -6% | -10% | -- | -14+/-6% | -4% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 41.3 | 41.9 | 44.2 | 42.3 | 47.6[5] | 44.7+/-2.2 | -2.9 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 33% | 31% | 31% | 34% | 36% | 36+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 29% | 35%[5] | 29%[5] | 31% | 30% | 26+/-3% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | 4% | -5% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11+/-6% | +5% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 27.7 | 28.3 | 28.8 | 24.9[5] | -- | 26.6+/-2.4 | +1.7 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 14% | 15% | 14% | 14% | -- | 11+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 53% | 50% | 53% | 52% | -- | 50+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -39% | -35% | -39% | -38% | -- | -39+/-6% | -1% |
- The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux sorted by net approval rates[6] are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 30/6-8/7/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 7-11/3/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 606-626 | 604-631 | 601-636 | 575-596 | -- |
| Response rate | 46.4% | 44.2% | 44.9% | 51.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding and error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 29% | 33% | 27%[7] | 28+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 22%[7] | 18% | 26%[7] | 21+/-3% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | 7% | 14% | 1%[7] | 7+/-6% | +6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 22%[7] | 22% | 17%[7] | 17+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 18%[7] | 16% | 22%[7] | 15+/-3% | -7%[7] |
| Net approval rate | 5%[7] | 7% | -5%[7] | 2+/-5% | +7%[7] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 32%[7] | 30% | 31% | 27+/-4% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 32%[7] | 27% | 29% | 26+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | 1%[7] | 3% | 2% | 1+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 33%[7] | 33% | 27%[7] | 25+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 30% | 27% | 31% | 25+/-4% | -6%[7] |
| Net approval rate | 3%[7] | 6% | -3%[7] | <1+/-6% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang | 43% | 43% | 40% | 38+/-4% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang | 41% | 40% | 39% | 39+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | 2% | 2% | 1% | -1+/-7% | -2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 28%[7] | 25% | 27% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 30%[7] | 27% | 34%[7] | 27+/-4% | -7%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -2%[7] | -2% | -7% | -4+/-6% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 24%[7] | 22% | 19% | 18+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 16%[7] | 17% | 23%[7] | 22+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | 8%[7] | 5% | -4%[7] | -4+/-5% | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 26%[7] | 27% | 23% | 20+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 20%[7] | 20% | 23% | 24+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | 6%[7] | 7% | -<1% | -5+/-6% | -4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 26% | 29% | 22%[7] | 22+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 29%[7] | 23%[7] | 31%[7] | 32+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -4% | 5%[7] | -9%[7] | -10+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 32%[7] | 32% | 25%[7] | 23+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 30%[7] | 24%[7] | 37%[7] | 38+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | 3%[7] | 8% | -12%[7] | -15+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 22%[7] | 21% | 17%[7] | 17+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 51%[7] | 48% | 48% | 47+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -29%[7] | -27% | -31% | -29+/-6% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 28% | 25% | 24% | 16+/-3% | -8%[7] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 36%[7] | 38% | 40% | 58+/-4% | +18%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -8%[7] | -13% | -16% | -42+/-6% | -26%[7] |
- If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 26.6 marks, which has significantly decreased by 5.2 marks compared to a month ago, registering a record low since April 2020, with 40% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 12%, disapproval rate 78%, giving a net popularity of negative 67 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 14 percentage points compared to a month ago, registering a record low since February 2020.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 34.8 marks. His approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 38%, giving a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. Both his support rating and net popularity have registered new lows since records began in July 2021. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.7 marks. His approval rate stands at 36%, disapproval rate 26%, thus a net popularity of positive 11 percentage points, registering a new high since records began in early February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 26.6 marks. Her approval rate stands at 11%, disapproval rate 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. No significant changes have been registered for all the above ratings and net approval rates compared to two months ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui has left the post and 4 out of the remaining 12 Directors have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau. The 5th to 12th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Security Chris Tang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of 5 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, the net approval rate of Christopher Hui has significantly increased, while that of Sophia Chan has dropped significantly by 26 percentage points, registering a new low since records began in July 2017.
According to PORI’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Edward Yau, John Lee, Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Wong Kam-sing, Erick Tsang, Alfred Sit, Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Sophia Chan and Teresa Cheng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Secretary for Security Chris Tang (38%)
FS Paul Chan (36%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (27%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (25%) CS John Lee (24%) Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (23%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (22%) Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (17%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[8]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (28%, 49%)
Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (23%, 50%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (20%, 44%) Secretary for Development Michael Wong (18%, 40%) Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (17%, 32%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (58%)
SJ Teresa Cheng (50%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| CE Carrie Lam (78%) |
- If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 29 November to 3 December, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 11 March, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 7/3/22 | The government launches the “Declaration System for individuals tested positive for COVID-19 using Rapid Antigen Test”. |
| 2/3/22 | Carrie Lam says citywide lockdown would not be imposed during compulsory universal testing. |
| 23/2/22 | The government delivers the new Budget, and will spend more than HK$170 billion on counter-cyclical measures. |
| 22/2/22 | The government announces the implementation of compulsory mass testing in March. |
| 21/2/22 | The government announces the implementation of the Vaccine Pass arrangement starting from February 24. |
| 18/2/22 | Carrie Lam announces the postponement of the Chief Executive Election to May 8 by invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance. |
| 12/2/22 | As COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, Hong Kong reports 1,514 cases, registering a record high. |
| 11/2/22 | As COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, a delegation led by Chief Secretary for Administration John Lee attends the second Mainland-Hong Kong thematic meeting on COVID-19 pandemic in Shenzhen. |
| 31/1/22 | Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui announces his resignation. |
| 27/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 17 and announces the launch of “vaccine pass” on February 24. |
| 26/1/22 | Hong Kong Society for the Protection of Children releases the First Interim Independent Review Committee Report on alleged child abuse at the Children’s Residential Home. |
| 21/1/22 | The government announces five-day lockdown at Yat Kwai House in Kwai Chung Estate for mandatory virus testing due to the outbreak of COVID-19. |
| 18/1/22 | The government culls 2,000 animals after a hamster contracts COVID-19. |
| 14/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 3 and announces details for the fifth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 7/1/22 | All 170 guests who attended the birthday party of Witman Hung are sent to quarantine. |
| 29/12/21 | Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested. |
| 20/12/21 | 90 members of Legislative Council are elected. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 26.6 marks, which has significantly decreased by 5.2 marks compared to a month ago, registering a record low since April 2020, with 40% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 67 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 14 percentage points compared to a month ago, registering a record low since February 2020.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 34.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 14 percentage points. Both have registered new lows since records began in July 2021. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.7 marks and his net popularity is positive 11 percentage points, registering a new high since records began in early February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 26.6 marks and her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. No significant changes have been registered for all the above ratings and net approval rates compared to two months ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui has left the post and 4 out of the remaining 12 Directors have got positive net approval rates, who are Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Edward Yau. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of 5 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged. Among them, the net approval rate of Christopher Hui has significantly increased, while that of Sophia Chan has dropped significantly by 26 percentage points, registering a new low since records began in July 2017.